Right Action

dog track

Everything is relative and perspective is everything yet nothing. Human decision making is fraught with ERRORS, which is why learning to manage risk is more about becoming aware of these perceptual errors inherent in calculating odds and value.

Daniel Bernoulli’s Expected Value = (Odds of Gain) X (Value of Gain)

Is trading really so difficult? Look at any H4 or D1 time frame and decide where you would like to get in and out for both a buy and a sell. Now do you have the patience to wait? And can you keep your risk down at around 2% of your equity? Probably not. So YES, it’s difficult. This is because humans are wired with an immunity against change that feeds off unconscious beliefs that are for the most part wrong.

I believe Zen is simply about knowing how to change. And maybe this is why the 200MA has special significance, because it’s the Middle Way for traders, a reminder that it’s just a random walk.

So it’s difficult because we make it so. Like taking good advice (or taking heart medication) … one just can’t seem to do it.

Learn to trade because it teaches one how to change.

Virtual Desktops – VPS

vps beach

                     VPS is the way to go if one is running EAs. I’ve been away for 4 weeks and lousy mobile signals meant I wasn’t able to supervise the EAs. But as it turned out, leaving the EAs alone didn’t hurt (this time) as they are […]

Continue reading...

Verified Trading Results

vps alp057 3EAs 3mths

  I recommend myfxbook for analytics (among their other great services) and must point out how important it is to check if the trading results have been verified. Here are the results of two accounts running EAs in VPS for the past three months that are averaging over 7% per month off 1c/$5k and 10c/$20k […]

Continue reading...

Science and Faith

futureman

Betrand Russell had this to say on the matter in Human Society in Ethics and Politics (1954): There is something feeble and a little contemptible about a man who cannot face the perils of life without the help of comfortable myths. Almost inevitably some part of him is aware that they are myths and that he […]

Continue reading...

Ignorance

knowledge ignorance

Confucius: “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.” The following info is very relevant to trading and not only because of systems that provide real-time performance management, but because of the cognitive bias we have in evaluating our skills. I believe this helps explain why becoming a successful trader is so difficult […]

Continue reading...